IPTV: A gentle whiff of desperation in the air?

Posted by Adam Thomas Tuesday, March 23rd, 2010

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In 1967 Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys was working on his album Smile. Paul McCartney visited him and played some tracks from Sgt Pepper, warning him “You’d better hurry up, we’re almost finished.” This was too much for Brian, who realised his project had stagnated and he’d been overtaken. Shortly after he was playing in a sandpit and having a nervous breakdown.

Walking around the IPTV World Forum today, I was struck that many of the conversations I was having were very similar to those I’d had five years ago. What is the best business model? Are open standards the way to go? Should there be greater investment in network upgrades? The success of IPTV is still very much subject to overcoming the same issues described five years earlier.

But, while many of the topics were similar, the big difference this year was the tone of the conversations. Five years ago there was a relaxed confidence surrounding IPTV. The feeling was of a technology on the cusp of something big and the world being its oyster. Today there was a slight whiff of desperation. Instead of looking forward, there was a tendency for delegates to look over their shoulder at who or what may be about to overtake them.

In his presentation at the conference, Paul Bristow of ADB summed up IPTV’s report card to date in a single word: “disappointing”. Save for a handful of positive examples, that’s a difficult summary to argue with. So does this stagnation mean IPTV is headed for a Brian Wilson style meltdown, as something ‘better’ overtakes it?

Thankfully, I think we are a long way from that, but some signs of significant progress in the near future would be very welcome. Consumers are still waiting for an ultra-compelling service that offers them easy access to the multitude of content choices available to them. It had better hurry up, but IPTV could still evolve into that service, so there’s no need to jump into the sandpit quite yet.

ARPU under pressure as triple-play shapes digital future in Eastern Europe

Posted by Adam Thomas Thursday, August 13th, 2009

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Having just completed our latest research on Central and Eastern Europe, a picture is emerging of fairly rapid digital TV growth. The good news is that this looks set to continue over the next five years. Having ended 2008 with 32 million digital homes, the region is expected to close 2014 with 87 million, so pretty much a three-fold increase. This growth will see well over half of the region’s TV households being digital by 2014, up from 21% now. Only Russia and Ukraine are expected to fail to reach 50% by that time.

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